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Money market traders are betting September's hike was the last, with almost 90 basis points of rate cuts priced by the end of 2024. European shares underperforming their U.S. counterparts was a common expectation amongst the survey's European respondents as the robust American economy looks more likely to achieve a 'soft landing' than Europe. European shares are much cheaper than those in the U.S., possibly reflecting the worse economic outlook. The STOXX Europe 600 trades at over 12 times 12-month forward earnings, a 35.6% discount to the S&P 500 (.SPX). "Still, as the broader economic slowdown takes hold of the continent's markets, we expect to see a rather challenging second half of 2024."

Persons: Chris Beauchamp, Thomas Monteiro, Germany's DAX, Fiona Cincotta, Cincotta, Investing.com's Monteiro, Monteiro, Samuel Indyk, Danilo Masoni, Pranoy Krishna, Rahul Trivedi, Sarupya Ganguly, Jason Neely Organizations: IG, European Central Bank, ECB, Investing.com, FTSE, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Europe, Germany, riskier, U.S, Bengaluru

Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oil field in Midland, Texas U.S. August 22, 2018. Brent crude futures closed below $84 a barrel for the first time since Hamas Islamists' Oct. 7 attack on Israel. A recovery in oil exports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also added to the pressure on oil prices, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. On the demand side, China's crude oil imports in October showed robust growth but its total exports of goods and services contracted at a quicker pace than expected. "There are concerns in the oil markets about both rising supply and sliding demand," said Mizuho analyst Robert Yawger.

Persons: Nick Oxford, Powell, Craig Erlam, Giovanni Staunovo, Staunovo, Brent, Fiona Cincotta, Neel Kashkari, Jerome Powell, Robert Yawger, It's, Shariq Khan, Trixie Yap, Yuka Obayashi, David Gregorio, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Midland , Texas U.S, REUTERS, bbl, BENGALURU, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Traders, Organization of Petroleum, UBS, U.S . Energy Information Administration, ., Minneapolis Federal, Investors, Thomson Locations: Midland , Texas, Israel, U.S, Bengaluru, Singapore, Tokyo

☆ Dollar bounces after sharp selloff, weak data hurts euro
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. one dollar banknotes are seen in front of displayed stock graph in this illustration taken, February 8, 2021. "If you look at the percentage of currencies that have been down versus the dollar over the last 26 weeks, it was approaching 100%, and data also showed very long dollar positioning ... Traders are now pricing in only a slim chance of a further interest rate increase by the Fed and see three 25-basis-point rate cuts by next November. The euro fell 0.20% to $1.0695 after data showed a larger-than-expected fall in German industrial production in September. The yen softened to 151.74 per dollar last week, edging closer to October 2022 lows that spurred several rounds of dollar-selling intervention.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Marc Chandler, Jerome Powell, Chester Ntonifor, Chandler, Powell, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Fiona Cincotta, Karen Brettell, Alun John, Ankur Banerjee, Paul Simao, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: REUTERS, U.S ., Australian, greenback, Fed, Bannockburn Global, BCA Research, Traders, . Minneapolis, Chicago Fed, PMI, Index, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, U.S, Bannockburn, New York, London, Singapore

☆ Dollar bounces after sharp selloff, euro dented by weak data
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. one dollar banknotes are seen in front of displayed stock graph in this illustration taken, February 8, 2021. The dollar index which tracks the U.S. unit against six main peers, was up 0.37% at 105.64. If that continues, he added, attention will turn to how long to keep interest rates at current levels. The euro fell 0.37% to $1.0677 after data showed a larger-than-expected fall in German industrial production in September. The yen softened to 151.74 per dollar last week, edging closer to October 2022 lows that spurred several rounds of dollar-selling intervention.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jerome Powell, Marc Chandler, Chester Ntonifor, Chandler, Powell, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Fiona Cincotta, Carol Kong, Karen Brettell, Alun John, Ankur Banerjee, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, U.S ., Australian, Fed, Bannockburn Global, BCA Research, Traders, Minneapolis, . Chicago Fed, PMI, Index, Reserve Bank of Australia, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: U.S, Bannockburn, New York, Tokyo, London, Singapore

Tuesday data showing a larger-than-expected fall in German industrial production in September contributed to the euro's weakness, said Fiona Cincotta, senior financial market analyst at City Index. The euro, like most other currencies, gained sharply on the dollar last week as a series of data points - most notably U.S. data from Friday showing job growth slowed in October - sent the U.S. unit lower. The dollar fell 1.4% last week, its steepest decline since mid-July, a sharp reversal after a recent run higher. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said on Monday the U.S. central bank likely has more work ahead to control inflation. The yen softened to 151.74 per dollar last week, edging closer to October 2022 lows that spurred several rounds of dollar-selling intervention.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Fiona Cincotta, Chester Ntonifor, Neel Kashkari, Jerome Powell, Carol Kong, Kong, Ankur Banerjee, Alun John, Sam Holmes, Miral Fahmy, Edmund Klamann, Kim Coghill, Emelia Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, PMI, Federal, Treasury, BCA Research, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, U.S, Bank, Australian, Commonwealth Bank of, Aussie, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, LONDON, U.S, Australia, Tokyo, Singapore, London

☆ Oil heads for weekly loss as geopolitical risk premium wanes
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Ahmad Ghaddar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Both benchmarks gained more than $2 a barrel on Thursday, but were on track to lose about 4% on the week. The report could bolster the view that the U.S. Federal Reserve need not raise interest rates further. The Fed held interest rates steady on Wednesday, while the Bank of England held rates at a 15-year peak. The stable policies kept oil prices supported as some risk appetite returned to markets. "The oil market will be watching for an escalation of tensions, particularly on the Lebanese border, as Hezbollah attacks increase," City Index Fiona Cincotta said.

Persons: Jussi Rosendahl, Brent, Fiona Cincotta, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Israel, Jeslyn Lerh, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, West Texas, National Bureau, Statistics, U.S . Labor Department, U.S . Federal, Fed, Bank of, Palestinian, Thomson Locations: Porvoo, Finland, China, Bank of England, Gaza, Lebanese, Saudi Arabia, Singapore

☆ London stock exchange sees first trading halt in 4 years; blue chips spared
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The London Stock Exchange Group offices are seen in the City of London, Britain, December 29, 2017. REUTERS/Toby Melville/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 19 (Reuters) - The London Stock Exchange (LSE) (LSEG.L) was forced to halt trading in smaller stocks on Thursday after an incident disrupted activity, although blue chip shares suffered no interruptions. London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) said FTSE 100 (.FTSE), FTSE 250 (.FTMC) and International Order Book securities - those shares listed in London by overseas companies - were operating normally. The FTSE 100 closed down 1.2% on the day. In 2019, the London Stock Exchange suffered an almost two-hour outage that hit FTSE 100 and midcap stocks, which LSEG said was caused by a “technical software issue”.

Persons: Toby Melville, LSEG, Fiona Cincotta, Thomson, Akanksha, Huw Jones, Harry Robertson, Alun John, Joice Alves, Amanda Cooper, Danilo Masoni, Kirsten Donovan, Susan Fenton Organizations: London Stock Exchange Group, City of, REUTERS, London Stock Exchange, LSE, FTSE, Traders, Reuters, City, Thomson Reuters, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, London, LSEG, Bengaluru, Milan

Oil prices rose last week as investors priced in the chance of escalation in the world's top oil-producing region, while U.S. Treasuries and gold prices rose as traders bought safe-haven assets. Traders are waiting to see if the conflict draws in other countries, which would drive up oil prices further and deal a fresh blow to the global economy. Oil prices eased but were still above $90 a barrel after surging last week. Before Hamas' attack, market sentiment had been driven by the global economy and the idea that the U.S. Federal Reserve was planning to keep rates higher for longer. European government bond yields rose after European Central Bank officials reiterated concerns about inflation.

Persons: Benjamin Netanyahu, Fiona Cincotta, Antony Blinken, Cincotta, Israel's shekel, Kyle Rodda, Rodda, Elizabeth Howcroft, Kevin Buckland, David Evans, Jan Harvey Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, Israel's, U.S, Traders, Nasdaq, U.S . Federal Reserve, Treasury, European Central Bank, Capital.com, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Israel, Gaza, Iran, East, Qatar, Jordan, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, London, Tokyo

☆ Dollar set for best quarter in a year; yen-watch rumbles on
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. "We've had resilience in the U.S. economy, in the jobs market, inflation ticking higher and, obviously, the rise in oil prices. "We're not really expecting to see any rate cuts for quite some time, well toward the back end of 2024. Markets are looking ahead to the next data points, starting with key U.S. personal consumption data due later on Friday. The yen last traded at 149.125 to the dollar, which eased 0.13% on the day.

Persons: Florence Lo, Fiona Cincotta, We're, Tony Sycamore, we've, Sycamore, Thomas Barkin, Yasunari Ueno, Brigid Riley, Gerry Doyle, Neil Fullick, Kevin Liffey Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Treasury, City Index, Federal Reserve, IG, Richmond Fed, Mizuho Securities, Sterling, National Statistics, COVID, Thomson Locations: U.S, City, Tokyo

Chevron Chief Executive Mike Wirth also said he thinks oil will cross $100 per barrel in a Bloomberg News interview. Saudi Arabia and Russia this month extended a combined 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of supply cuts to the end of the year. Saudi Arabia's energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman on Monday defended OPEC+ cuts to oil market supply, saying international energy markets need light-handed regulation to limit volatility. China, considered the engine of oil demand growth, is a key risk because of its sluggish post-pandemic economic recovery, though its oil imports have remained robust. "The high-for-longer mantra would ultimately have a negative impact on economic growth and would affect oil demand."

Persons: Tatiana Meel, Brent, WTI, Fiona Cincotta, Mike Wirth, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Callum Macpherson, Tamas Varga, PVM's Varga, Arathy Somasekhar, Natalie Grover, Florence Tan, Sudarshan, David Goodman, Timothy Gardner Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Citi, Monday, Chevron, Bloomberg, ANZ, XM, U.S . Federal, Thomson Locations: Nakhodka, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, China, Saudi, Investec, Europe, Houston, London, Singapore

☆ Shares rise, dollar drops vs yen after BOJ hint of shift in policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The yen surged after BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank could end its policy of negative interest rates when the achievement of its 2% inflation target is in sight. Global shares, as reflected by the MSCI All-World index (.MIWD00000PUS), rose 0.1%, supported by a bounce in stocks in Europe, where the STOXX 600 (.STOXX) gained 0.3%. Last week, the STOXX posted its longest stretch of losses in 5-1/2 years. Economists polled by Reuters expect consumer prices to have risen by 3.6% from last year, up from July's 3.2% reading. The ECB meets on Thursday to set interest rates and markets have all but priced out any chance of a hike.

Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Fiona Cincotta, Marcella Chow, Scott Murdoch, Simon Cameron, Moore, Mark Heinrich, Chizu Organizations: Bank of Japan, Global, European Central Bank, Reuters, JPMorgan Asset Management, Brent, ECB, Thomson Locations: China, Europe, U.S, Asia, Sydney

A coffee machine featuring Novo Nordisk logo is seen at the company headquarters in Copenhagen, Denmark, February 5, 2020. REUTERS/Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk briefly unseated LVMH (LVMH.PA) as Europe's most valuable listed company in intraday trading on Friday, ending the French luxury group's 2-1/2 year-long reign at the top. At 0843 GMT, Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO) had a market capitalisation of $421 billion including unlisted stock, according to Refinitiv data and company disclosures of its share count. By 1031 GMT, Novo Nordisk shares were up 1% while LVMH shares were down 0.4%. LVMH shares have fallen 13.8% from an all-time high hit in April, underperforming Europe's broader STOXX 600 which is down around 1.9% in the same time frame.

Persons: Jacob Gronholt, Pedersen, LVMH, Ozempic, Wegovy, Novo's, Louis Vuitton, Marcel Stotzel, Stotzel, Eli Lilly, Axelle Pinon, Mounjaro, Novo, Carmignac's Pinon, Hennessy, Tiffany, Fiona Cincotta, Hermes, Samuel Indyk, Amanda Cooper, Catherine Evans Organizations: Novo Nordisk, REUTERS, Nestle, Dior, Fidelity European Fund, Fidelity European Trust, Barclays, Index, Financiere, Thomson Locations: Copenhagen, Denmark, Danish, LVMH, United States, China, Covid

Brent crude fell 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $83.05 a barrel by 11:41 a.m. EDT (1541 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 12 cents, or 0.2%, to $78.77 a barrel. "Disappointing data and nerves that the Federal Reserve could reinforce a hawkish stance are weighing on oil," said Fiona Cincotta, analyst at City Index. On the supply side, Iran's crude oil output will reach 3.4 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of September, the country's oil minister was quoted as saying by state media, even though U.S. sanctions remain in place. U.S. crude inventories (USOILC=ECI) fell by 6.1 million barrels in the week to Aug. 18 to 433.5 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.8 million-barrel drop.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brent, Fiona Cincotta, Jackson, Powell, Shariq Khan, Ahmad Ghaddar, Mohi Narayan, Kim Coghill, David Evans, David Gregorio Our Organizations: cnsphoto, REUTERS, Fed, U.S . Federal, . West Texas, Federal, Wednesday Japan, Federal Reserve, Organization of, Petroleum, Thomson Locations: Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China, BENGALURU, U.S, American, Saudi Arabia

But it was U.S. Treasuries that hogged the limelight once again, with benchmark 10-year yields climbing to 4.366% - their highest level since 2007 and up almost 40 bps month-to-date - before losing some ground to 4.3141%. "There's a more cautiously optimistic mood across financial markets," said Fiona Cincotta, senior markets analyst at City Index in London. At the same time, however, inflation expectations have hardly budged - meaning "real" yields, which discount inflation expectations, have surged - a development likely to prompt investors to re-evaluate taking risks. The 10-year real rate breached 2% late last week. In Europe, benchmark bond yields in Germany, France and Italy eased after Monday's sharp climb , , .

Persons: BOJ's Ueda, Fiona Cincotta, Jackson, Padhraic Garvey, Vishnu Varathan, Kazuo Ueda, Karin Strohecker, Elizabeth Howcroft, Dhara Ranasinghe, Tom Westbrook, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, Nvidia, Wall, Index, Federal Reserve, Treasury, ING . Markets, Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Mizuho Bank, NVIDIA, Wednesday, Tech, P, Brent, Benchmark, Dalian, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Europe, Asia, U.S, London, Americas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Singapore, France, Italy

U.S. Dollar and Chinese Yuan banknotes are seen in this illustration taken January 30, 2023. Rising U.S. Treasury yields, with benchmark 10-year yields hitting 16-year highs on Tuesday, and unease over China have boosted the dollar this month. "What we're seeing is a bit of a pause," said Fiona Cincotta, senior markets analyst at City Index, in London. The U.S. dollar index - which measures the currency against six major counterparts, was a touch softer at 103.30, holding below Friday's 10-week highs at 103.68. The Australian dollar was 0.4% firmer at $0.6441 as global risk appetite recovered.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Bond, Powell, Jackson, Fiona Cincotta, We've, Kazuo Ueda, Jerome Powell, Sterling, Lee Hardman, Dhara Ranasinghe, Kevin Buckland, Angus MacSwan, Bernadette Baum Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Treasury, City Index, Bank of Japan, Federal, Thomson Locations: China, London, , Wyoming, U.S, Toyko

The euro slipped 0.25% against the dollar, government bond yields across the bloc edged lower while European stock markets dipped, with Spain's benchmark index down 0.65% in a clear underperformance. Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures , rose 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, pointing to a positive open for Wall Street. With the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan meeting this week, a note of caution underpinned the mood across global markets. The benchmarks continued their fourth straight of week of gains last week, as supply is expected to tighten following OPEC+ cuts. HOST OF EARNINGSOn top of central bank meetings and economic data, investors also braced for a slew of earnings from both sides of the Atlantic.

Persons: Kai Pfaffenbach, Bruno Schneller, Schneller, Eddie Cheng, Allspring's Cheng, SPAIN UNDERPERFORMS, Fiona Cincotta, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara, Wayne Cole, Amanda Cooper, Peter Graff Organizations: REUTERS, Nasdaq, Fed, ECB London, Wall, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, ECB, INVICO Asset Management, Bank of Japan, Japan's Nikkei, Allspring Global Investments, Brent, . West Texas, Intel, Microsoft, GE, Boeing, Exxon Mobil, Coca Cola, Ford, GM, U.S, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Spain, U.S, Spain's, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Ukraine, Russia, China, SPAIN, SPAIN UNDERPERFORMS Spain, Sunday's, Basque, Catalan, Coca, London, SYDNEY

☆ Global shares rise, dollar rebounds as Fed seen on target for rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Retail sales increased 0.2% last month, the U.S. Commerce Department said, but core retail sales increased 0.6%, excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services. Headline data for May also was revised higher to show sales gaining 0.5% instead of 0.3% as previously reported. Asian stocks fell earlier in the session as markets caught up with growth data from Monday showing the post-pandemic bounce in China's economy was over. Besides the Fed, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan also hold policy meetings next week. Expectations that the Fed and the ECB will diverge on rate hikes have caused the dollar to weaken recently.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Morgan Stanley, Jimmy Chang, Chang, J.P, Morgan, Fiona Cincotta, DAX, Brent, Herbert Lash, Elizabeth Howcroft, Selina Li, Chizu Nomiyama, Jonathan Oatis, Deepa Babington Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Bank, Federal, Bank of America, U.S . Commerce Department, Rockefeller, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of, ECB, U.S, West Texas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, New York, Europe, China, Germany, Bank of Japan, London, Hong Kong

☆ Global shares rise, US shares mixed as Fed seen on target for rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 7, 2023. Headline data for May also was revised higher to show sales gaining 0.5% instead of 0.3% as previously reported. Deutsche Bank said it was lowering its forecast for China's economic growth this year, following similar moves on Monday by J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup. Besides the Fed, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan also hold policy meetings next week. Expectations that the Fed and the ECB will diverge on rate hikes have caused the dollar to weaken recently.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Dow Industrials, Thomas Hayes, Dow, Morgan Stanley, J.P, Morgan, Fiona Cincotta, DAX, Brent, Elizabeth Howcroft, Selina Li, Chizu Nomiyama, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Reserve, U.S . Commerce Department, Treasury, Dow, Nasdaq, Microsoft Corp, Amazon.com Inc, Apple Inc, Great, Great Hill Capital, Bank of America, Dow Jones, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of, ECB, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Great Hill, New York, Europe, China, Germany, Bank of Japan, Hong Kong

☆ Shares get a tech boost; dollar dithers ahead of inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, June 9, 2023. REUTERS/StaffLONDON, June 13 (Reuters) - Global shares rose on Tuesday, taking their lead from an upbeat session on Wall Street ahead of key U.S. inflation data that could shape the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy. Money markets show traders now anticipate a peak in UK rates at around 5.6% by February, up from a terminal rate of 4.85% by November a month ago. In currencies, the dollar index , which measures the performance of the U.S. currency against six others, fell 0.2% to 103.32. Sterling rose 0.4% against the dollar to $1.2567 after the UK wage data , while the euro rose 0.4% to $1.0796.

Persons: Michael Hewson, it’s, BoE, we've, Fiona Cincotta, Farouq Suleiman, Julie Zhu, Christopher Cushing, Jamie Freed, Simon Cameron, Moore, Conor Humphries Organizations: REUTERS, Staff LONDON, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Nikkei, Nasdaq, Amazon, Apple, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Fed, ECB, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Bank of, Sterling, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Europe, Swedish, Bank of Japan, London, Hong Kong

☆ Fed 'skip' chatter triggers dollar's biggest weekly fall since January
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Australian dollar surged after an increase in the minimum wage there stoked bets for another raise in rates next week. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six others, has dropped nearly 0.8% this week, its biggest weekly loss since mid-January. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said on Thursday "it's time to at least hit the stop button for one meeting and see how it goes", referring to the June 13-14 Fed meeting. Money markets are pricing in a roughly 29% chance of a June hike, down from near 70% earlier in the week. Even if a hike doesn't happen next week, markets expect one by autumn.

Persons: Fiona Cincotta, let's, Patrick Harker, Philip Jefferson, Guy Miller, Christine Lagarde, Joe Biden, Monday's, Ray Attrill, Dhara Ranasinghe, Kevin Buckland, Mark Heinrich, Mark Potter, Andrew Heavens Organizations: Federal Reserve, Australian, City Index, Philadelphia Fed, Reuters, Zurich Insurance, European Central Bank, U.S . Senate, National Australia Bank, NAB, Traders, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: U.S, City, April's, London, Tokyo

☆ Dollar sags as chances grow for Fed 'skip,' debt bill passes
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Hundred dollar bills are seen in this photo illustraiton in Warsaw, Poland on Sept. 21, 2022. The Australian dollar surged after an increase in the minimum wage stoked bets for the central bank to raise rates again next week. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six others, has dropped nearly 0.8% this week, its biggest weekly loss since mid-January. Money markets are pricing in a roughly 29% chance of a hike, down from near 70% earlier in the week. The dollar was last up slightly at 138.74 yen.

Persons: Fiona Cincotta, let's, Patrick Harker, Philip Jefferson Organizations: Federal Reserve, Australian, City Index, Philadelphia Fed Locations: Warsaw, Poland, U.S, City

☆ Dollar gains as debt deal optimism fires up investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

That eased fears of an unprecedented and economically catastrophic default, leading markets to revise their expectations of where U.S. interest rates could go. "As far as expectations for a June rate hike are concerned, those have risen significantly in the last week. Against the yen , the dollar was down 0.4% at 138.19 yen, having risen to a six-month peak of 138.745 earlier on. Among other major currencies, the Australian dollar took some heart from a pickup in commodity prices like copper and iron ore. In China, the yuan slid to its lowest since December, at 7.0365 per dollar, as data offered evidence of a sputtering recovery in the world's second-largest economy.

"The bank run has abated for the moment, but that might be contingent on what the Fed signals today," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive in Toronto. "The risk is that the (Federal Open Market Committee) shatters the fragile calm in markets today... by acting too aggressively." The Fed meeting concludes on Wednesday with the 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) release of a policy statement followed half an hour later by a news conference by Powell. Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC, said the focus will be on how the Fed communicates its forward guidance, in particular "the higher for longer" rhetoric. The Japanese yen weakened 0.20% to 132.80 per dollar, while the Australian dollar rose 0.07% to $0.667.

☆ Dollar eases as investors ponder outlook for Fed rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Markets are pricing in about a 15% chance of the Fed not increasing rates, with a roughly 85% chance of a 25 basis point hike, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Just a month earlier, the market was pricing in a 24% chance of a 50 basis point hike. The Fed meeting concludes on Wednesday with the 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) release of a policy statement followed half an hour later by a news conference by Powell. "This wish list should see dollar trade on the softer profile and risk proxies trade steadily". The euro was last down 0.4% against sterling at 87.81 pence, while gaining 0.2% against the dollar to trade at $1.079.

☆ World stocks cautiously higher ahead of high stakes Fed decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/5] A man shelters under an umbrella as he walks past the London Stock Exchange in London, Britain, August 24, 2015. Data showing British inflation unexpectedly rose to 10.4% in February boosted expectations for a quarter point rate hike at Thursday's Bank of England meeting, lifting sterling. While London's FTSE stock index dipped (.FTSE), European stock markets more broadly edged higher (.STOXX) while Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) added 1.3%. The spotlight was firmly on the Fed, which concludes a two-day meeting later on Wednesday. "Plus, delivery of a 25 bps hike still means the Fed is tightening, there is likely at least another hike to come."

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